With these improvements to Boehm?s method, we estimate that in 2012 there will be 90 million end users in American workplaces. Of these, we anticipate that over 55 million will use spreadsheets or databases (and therefore may potentially program), while over 13 million will describe themselves as programmers,compared to BLS projections of fewer than 3 million professional programmers. We have validated our improved method by generating estimates for 2001 and 2003, then verifying that our estimates are consistent with existing estimates from other sources.
Preferred citaiton: C. Scaffidi, M. Shaw, and B. Myers. Estimating the Numbers of End Users and End User Programmers. VL/HCC"05: Proceedings of the 2005 IEEE Symposium on Visual Languages and Human-Centric Computing, 2005, pp.207-214.
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