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An Empirical Comparison of Field Defect Modeling Methods


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An Empirical Comparison of Field Defect Modeling Methods

Paul Luo Li, Mary Shaw, James D. Herbsleb, P. Santhanam, and Bonnie Ray
Technical Report, ISRI-06-102, May 2005

KeyWords:empirical studies,empirical research,cots,defect modeling,reliability engineering management,reliability,metrics,maintenance resource planning,measurement,experimentation,software insurance

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Abstract:

In this study, we report empirical results from forecasting field defect rates and predicting the number of field defects for a large commercial software system. We find that we are not able to accurately forecast field defect rates using a combined time-based and metrics-based approach, as judged by the Theil forecasting statistic. We suggest possible conditions that may have contributed to the poor results. Next, we use metrics-based approaches to predict the number of field defects within the six months after deployment. We find that the simple ratios method produce more accurate predictions than more complex metrics-based methods. Our results are steps toward quantitatively managing the risks associated with software field defects.

Preferred citation: Paul Luo Lo, Mary Shaw, Jim Herbsleb, P. Santhanam, Bonnie Ray. An Empirical Comparison of Field Defect Modeling Methods, Carnegie Mellon University technical report ISRI-06-102, May 2005
Entry last Updated 2006-08-24

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